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The famed Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst known as Michael Pachter is at it again, reckoning that Sony’s new console, PS4, will sell roughly 20 million more units than PS3, adding that because of the machine’s massive amount of RAM, the games industry will once again see some innovation.
Speaking at a South at Southwest (SXSW) panel, Pachter revealed his firm’s prediction through a series of slides. The analyst also sees the Xbox 720 selling roughly the same amount of units as PS4, and said the latter console will cost less than $599 at launch, which will make it more attractive than its predecessor PS3, the latter costing $600 when it went on sale in 2006.
Image Courtesy Geoff Keighley
Pachter has already deemed Wii U a failure, and believes the console will only sell about 30-50 million units lifetime, around the same amount as the Nintendo 64, placing the company in a precarious situation.
Xbox 720 will heavily integrate television, Pachter says, with potential Multiple System Operator (MSO) subsidies with cable companies.
My Take
Pachter’s predictions are pretty par for the course, meaning they’re not rocket science, but I think he’s wrong on a few things. First, though, let’s examine where I believe he’s right.
Correct: Yes, PS4 will breed innovation because of its considerable power (16x more powerful than PS3) and with 8GB of GDDR5 Ram, the possibilities are limitless. Let’s not forget the other features Sony spoke of at the PlayStation Meeting, including being able to instantly share the last 15 minutes of your gameplay, spectating while your friends play their games and being able to comment, share and even offer advice. It goes even further, as you’ll be able to control your friends’ PS4s from your local if they need help accomplishing a task. So yes, innovation is a given, my unborn child could have predicted that.
Correct: The console will cost less than $599. Now come on, of course it will! That prediction should not have been part of his presentation. If he was predicting an actually price of, say, $399 or something, then I’d give it thought. But we all know the console will cost less than $599. After all, Sony’s trying to correct PS3′s mistakes.
Wrong: PS4 will sell 75-95 million units globally. Dead wrong. PS3 only sold 75 million units and counting because it was priced ridiculously, and released one year later than Microsoft, forcing gamers to leave their childhood brand behind for Xbox 360, a decision that cost Sony dearly. PS4 will release before or around the same time as the next Xbox, and the launch prices will be similar – the race won’t be as easy for Microsoft like it was back in 2005, when it launched Xbox 360 with no competition. So there, Pachter is wrong.
Maybe: Wii U will sell 30-50 million units in its lifetime. It’s too early to know, so on that topic I’d wait, if I was Pachter. Nintendo could still unveil a strategy to pull out the sprawling console out of its sales lull, so I’d say let’s give it until E3 2013 to see what the firm has. After all, we’ve counted Nintendo out of the race more than a few times, only to see the company come back and stun everyone over and over again.
These are my thoughts, what about yours?
